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Discussion
 
 
 
"Driving forces, predetermined elements and critical uncertainties give structure to the exploration of the future." (Peter Scwartz)
 
_________
Driving Forces
 
Driving forces are those forces which can make the scenario to be fulfilled.
 
I have identified following driving forces behind my scenarios:
 
- Western consumers have become more interested in social and environmental aspects of their consumption.
 
- World trade is not sustainable enough.
 
- Information society has broadened the awareness of global issues among consumers / citizens.
 
 
Predetermined Elements
 
Predetermined elements do not depend on any particular chain of events. If an element in a scenario seems certain, no matter which scenario comes to pass it can be called predetermined.
 
I have discovered following predetermined elements:
 
- Resource depletion.
 
- EU -legislation.
 
- Visibility of global social and environmental issues.
 
- Possibility to manage large amounts of information.
 
 
Critical Uncertainties
 
Critical uncertainties are intimately related to predetermined elements.
I have identified following critical uncertainties:
 
- Does the legislation in the future support consumers demands for information? (Even if it is predetermined that it will cause remarkable changes in the economic system.
 
- Will the majority of western consumers be enough well of to critically re-evaluate their consumption habits?